The hottest May petrochemical analysis three major

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May Petrochemical Analysis: three major problems restrict the development of the petrochemical industry

the industrial economic operation in May recently released by the China Petroleum and chemical industry association shows that the production decline of the petroleum and chemical industry in may further narrowed, and the industry as a whole is developing in a good direction, but there are still three problems that need the industry to pay close attention to, which may restrict the further development of the petrochemical industry in the future

first, the overall decline of petrochemical market demand has not changed, and the downward trend of the overall price level has not reversed

in May, the sales output value of the whole industry decreased by 7.5% year-on-year; The production and sales rate was 97.4%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points month on month. According to the statistics of the railway department, in May, the national oil delivery volume fell by 10.7% year-on-year; The delivery volume of chemical fertilizers and pesticides decreased by 18.6% year-on-year and 19.8% month on month; The delivery volume of chemical products decreased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.8% month on month. These data on the other hand reflect the weakness of the current overall demand in the petrochemical market

at present, the overall market price level of the petrochemical industry is low, while the overall market price of the chemical industry is still downward. In May, the price index of more than 1000 petrochemical products released by the National Bureau of statistics was 82.14 (the price index of the same month last year was 100), an increase of 0.52 points over the previous month, of which the price index of chemical products was 88.55, down 0.63 points from the previous month, showing a continuous downward trend

second, the export situation is still severe, and the import pressure of some petrochemical products has increased

in May, the export value of the whole industry fell by 17% year-on-year. Although the decline narrowed, it was still large. It may cause the malfunction of the experimental machine and the damage of the parts to be tested, and the export value of the whole industry decreased by 22.8% year-on-year; The export value of the chemical industry decreased by 23.5% year-on-year, including a year-on-year decrease of 32% for basic chemical raw materials, 37.8% for chemical fertilizers, 32.4% for pesticides, 42.4% for coatings and pigments, and 14.2% for rubber products

on the other hand, the import pressure of some petrochemical products is increasing. Since this year, due to the weak demand in the international market and the expansion of domestic demand, the export of foreign organic, synthetic materials and other products to China has shown a rapid growth trend, and the price is far lower than the domestic market. The influx of a large number of low-cost imported products continues to occupy the domestic market, leading to a decline in domestic production

for example, in recent years, the average annual import of methanol has been more than 1 million tons due to economic factors, and only 1.4 million tons in the highest year. This month, the import volume reached 2.25 million tons, and the growth rate of domestic apparent consumption was as high as 51.5%. While the demand grew rapidly, the domestic methanol output fell by 11.2% in the first five months. The plastic masterbatch process of polyethylene and PVC is also roughly the same. In the first four months, the import volume increased by 65% and 101.8% year-on-year respectively, the domestic consumer market increased by 18.8% and 13.5% respectively, while the output decreased by 6.2% and 6.7% respectively

the Association believes that based on the analysis of the current situation, the demand for organic and synthetic materials in the domestic market will significantly slow down in the future, the import pressure will continue to increase, the domestic market competition will become more intense, and the business environment of production enterprises will further deteriorate

third, the problem of structural overcapacity in the industry is prominent

according to the output analysis in May, the operating rate of equipment in some industries is still seriously insufficient, and the problem of structural overcapacity in the industry is relatively prominent. The operating rate of ethylene in that month was about 85.1%, down about 7 percentage points from the previous month; The unit operating rate of soda ash industry is about 82.1%; The unit operating rate of caustic soda industry is about 79%; The operating rate of calcium carbide industry is 68.8%; The operating rate of PVC plant is about 58%; The operating rate of methanol industry is about 40.6%; The phosphate fertilizer industry is protected by a standardized, orderly and healthy development, and the operating rate of the device is about 50%; The operating rate of the oil refining industry is about 84%

some situations show that, driven by coal chemical industry, the pace of capacity expansion of methanol industry is still accelerating; The capacity of "two bases" also continues to increase; In the first five months, the investment in the phosphate fertilizer industry has reached an alarming rate, with a year-on-year increase of 112%, which is much higher than the average growth rate of 30.2% in the fertilizer industry, and an increase of 26.7 percentage points over the month. These undoubtedly make the structural adjustment of the industry worse

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